Global PV Industry Enters Deep Adjustment: Record Highs, First Decline, Trade Barriers and Technology Race

2025 was a record year for global PV. According to IEA PVPS, global solar installations reached 698 GW, cumulative capacity neared 3 TW, and solar supplied ~10.5% of electricity demand. China led with ~315 GW, followed by the EU and India, while Pakistan and Saudi Arabia entered the top ten for the first time. Entering 2026, BloombergNEF forecasts 649 GW of new installations – a 0.9% drop from 2025, the first annual decline since BNEF began tracking the industry. This is mainly due to market caution in China following new distributed generation rules and grid pricing reforms. The CPIA expects a rebound once policies take effect, and global demand is likely to recover, driven by India, the Middle East and North Africa.

 

Trade Barriers Escalate, Supply Chains Reshape

The EU’s Net‑Zero Industry Act (NZIA) mandates local manufacturing quotas for PV modules from 2026, aiming for 40% of deployment needs by 2030. The U.S. has imposed anti‑dumping duties of up to 271.2% on products from Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam, and preliminary duties on India (123.04%), Indonesia (35.17%) and Laos (22.46%). In response, Chinese manufacturers are shifting production to Mexico, the Middle East and other regions. Notably, PowerChina secured a 2.1 GW PV + 7.75 GWh storage EPC contract in the UAE in March 2026, marking a major milestone for the Middle East market.

 

 

Technology: TOPCon Dominates, Perovskite Accelerates

N‑type cells now dominate. In 2025, TOPCon held 87.6% of the global cell market, XBC 6.7%, HJT 2.6%. At SNEC 2026, JinkoSolar demonstrated a TOPCon‑perovskite tandem cell with 34.82% efficiency and a certified module efficiency of 30.23%. Perovskite‑silicon tandem is seen as a key path for future efficiency gains.

 

Storage and System Integration Take Center Stage

With rising curtailment and negative power prices at peak hours, the industry’s focus has shifted from module cost to grid integration, storage and curtailment management. At SNEC 2026, storage pavilions drew more attention than PV pavilions, highlighting the strategic shift toward PV‑storage synergy.

 

Outlook: Slower Growth, Stable Increments

Despite the 2026 dip, long‑term fundamentals remain solid. CPIA forecasts global annual additions of 725‑870 GW during 2026‑2030, with China at 238‑287 GW per year. IEA expects 4,600 GW of renewable capacity to be added globally from 2025 to 2030, with solar PV accounting for nearly 80%.

 

 

Based on data from IEA PVPS, BloombergNEF, CPIA, and public reports.